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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199703-199705

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
4
2
0
6
3
2
7
12
9
5
7
21

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
25
8
8
41
3
2
7
12
30
11
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
5
0
14
19
10
0
29
14
10
33
57
43
24
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
0
5
45
14
14
73
5
4
13
21
54
20
27
100

hitrate: 0.524 hitrate: 0.304
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 1.20 1.71
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 3.73 0.80
Heidke skill score: 0.286 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: 0.300 true Heidke skill score: 0.096
Kuipers skill score: 0.286 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: 0.315 true Kuipers skill score: 0.122
threat score:
0.200 0.222 0.583
threat score:
0.065 0.182 0.350
equitable threat score:
0.082 0.075 0.375
equitable threat score:
0.013 -0.001 0.226
probability of detection:
0.222 0.400 1.000
probability of detection:
0.067 0.727 0.467
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.667 0.417
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.805 0.417
samples: 21 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 37.50 %coverage: 100.00