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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199703-199705

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
4
0
0
4
4
4
8
16
8
4
8
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
26
7
7
40
4
4
8
16
30
11
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
0
0
20
20
20
40
80
40
20
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
46
13
13
71
7
7
14
29
54
20
27
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.268
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.64 1.07
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.098
true Heidke skill score: 0.062 true Heidke skill score: 0.065
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.098
true Kuipers skill score: 0.062 true Kuipers skill score: 0.085
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.159 0.348
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.111 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.024 0.198
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.636 0.533
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.825 0.500
samples: 20 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 35.71 %coverage: 100.00