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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199703-199705

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
1
0
3
3
2
4
9
5
3
4
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
9
11
47
3
2
4
9
30
11
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
8
0
25
25
17
33
75
42
25
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
48
16
20
84
5
4
7
16
54
20
27
100

hitrate: 0.417 hitrate: 0.232
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.00 2.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 4.27 0.60
Heidke skill score: 0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.152
true Heidke skill score: 0.152 true Heidke skill score: 0.031
Kuipers skill score: 0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.152
true Kuipers skill score: 0.160 true Kuipers skill score: 0.040
threat score:
0.000 0.200 0.444
threat score:
0.000 0.184 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.059 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.006 0.090
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.818 0.267
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 0.556
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.809 0.556
samples: 12 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 21.43 %coverage: 100.00