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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199703-199705

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
6
3
7
16
7
3
7
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
24
8
8
40
6
3
7
16
30
11
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
6
0
0
6
35
18
41
94
41
18
41
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
43
14
14
71
11
5
13
29
54
20
27
100

hitrate: 0.412 hitrate: 0.268
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.33 2.29
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.64 1.07
Heidke skill score: 0.118 Heidke skill score: -0.098
true Heidke skill score: 0.023 true Heidke skill score: 0.065
Kuipers skill score: 0.118 Kuipers skill score: -0.098
true Kuipers skill score: 0.022 true Kuipers skill score: 0.085
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.438
threat score:
0.000 0.186 0.292
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.046 0.044
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.004 0.138
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.727 0.467
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.562
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.800 0.562
samples: 17 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 30.36 %coverage: 100.00