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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199703-199705

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
7
4
8
19
8
4
8
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
23
7
7
37
7
4
8
19
30
11
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
5
0
0
5
35
20
40
95
40
20
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
41
13
13
66
13
7
14
34
54
20
27
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.268
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.25 2.38
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.36 1.27
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.098
true Heidke skill score: 0.016 true Heidke skill score: 0.061
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.098
true Kuipers skill score: 0.016 true Kuipers skill score: 0.078
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.421
threat score:
0.000 0.171 0.308
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.042 0.035
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.008 0.139
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.636 0.533
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.579
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.811 0.579
samples: 20 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 35.71 %coverage: 100.00