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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199703-199705

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
10
4
9
23
10
4
9
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
7
6
33
10
4
9
23
30
11
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
43
17
39
100
43
17
39
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
36
13
11
59
18
7
16
41
54
20
27
100

hitrate: 0.391 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 2.56
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.00 1.53
Heidke skill score: 0.087 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.077
Kuipers skill score: 0.087 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.099
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.391
threat score:
0.000 0.189 0.310
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.017 0.124
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.636 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.609
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.788 0.609
samples: 23 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 41.07 %coverage: 100.00