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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
1
0
3
4
5
2
1
8
7
2
4
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
33
2
12
47
5
2
1
8
39
4
13
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
0
0
8
8
0
23
31
38
15
8
62
54
15
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
59
4
21
84
9
4
2
14
70
7
23
100

hitrate: 0.154 hitrate: 0.071
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 11.75 0.62
Heidke skill score: -0.269 Heidke skill score: -0.393
true Heidke skill score: -0.172 true Heidke skill score: -0.038
Kuipers skill score: -0.269 Kuipers skill score: -0.393
true Kuipers skill score: -0.210 true Kuipers skill score: -0.075
threat score:
0.143 0.000 0.091
threat score:
0.026 0.041 0.050
equitable threat score:
0.071 -0.114 -0.171
equitable threat score:
0.008 -0.030 -0.047
probability of detection:
0.143 0.000 0.250
probability of detection:
0.026 0.500 0.077
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.875
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.957 0.875
samples: 13 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 23.21 %coverage: 100.00