CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
1
0
0
1
5
0
3
8
7
0
3
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
33
4
10
47
5
0
3
8
39
4
13
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
0
0
10
10
0
0
10
50
0
30
80
70
0
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
59
7
18
84
9
0
5
14
70
7
23
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.143
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 -- 2.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 11.75 0.62
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: -0.286
true Heidke skill score: 0.130 true Heidke skill score: 0.042
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: -0.286
true Kuipers skill score: 0.214 true Kuipers skill score: 0.082
threat score:
0.143 0.000 0.375
threat score:
0.026 0.085 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.048 0.000 0.107
equitable threat score:
0.008 0.015 0.071
probability of detection:
0.143 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.026 1.000 0.231
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.625
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.915 0.625
samples: 10 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 17.86 %coverage: 100.00