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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
4
1
3
8
5
1
3
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
34
3
10
47
4
1
3
8
39
4
13
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
0
0
11
0
0
0
0
44
11
33
89
56
11
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
61
5
18
84
7
2
5
14
70
7
23
100

hitrate: 0.444 hitrate: 0.125
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 0.00 2.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 11.75 0.62
Heidke skill score: 0.167 Heidke skill score: -0.313
true Heidke skill score: 0.135 true Heidke skill score: 0.022
Kuipers skill score: 0.167 Kuipers skill score: -0.313
true Kuipers skill score: 0.152 true Kuipers skill score: 0.043
threat score:
0.200 0.000 0.375
threat score:
0.026 0.062 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.100 0.000 0.062
equitable threat score:
0.008 -0.008 0.071
probability of detection:
0.200 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.026 0.750 0.231
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.625
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.936 0.625
samples: 9 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 16.07 %coverage: 100.00