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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
1
3
6
3
1
3
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
36
3
10
49
2
1
3
6
39
4
13
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
0
0
14
0
0
0
0
29
14
43
86
43
14
43
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
64
5
18
88
4
2
5
11
70
7
23
100

hitrate: 0.571 hitrate: 0.125
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 12.25 0.46
Heidke skill score: 0.357 Heidke skill score: -0.313
true Heidke skill score: 0.250 true Heidke skill score: 0.028
Kuipers skill score: 0.357 Kuipers skill score: -0.313
true Kuipers skill score: 0.233 true Kuipers skill score: 0.055
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.026 0.060 0.188
equitable threat score:
0.222 0.000 0.125
equitable threat score:
0.008 -0.011 0.110
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.026 0.750 0.231
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.939 0.500
samples: 7 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 12.50 %coverage: 100.00