CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
4
0
2
6
5
0
2
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
34
4
11
49
4
0
2
6
39
4
13
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
14
0
0
14
0
0
0
0
57
0
29
86
71
0
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
61
7
20
88
7
0
4
11
70
7
23
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.125
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 -- 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 12.25 0.46
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: -0.313
true Heidke skill score: 0.125 true Heidke skill score: 0.028
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: -0.313
true Kuipers skill score: 0.200 true Kuipers skill score: 0.055
threat score:
0.200 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.026 0.082 0.118
equitable threat score:
0.067 0.000 0.067
equitable threat score:
0.008 0.011 0.039
probability of detection:
0.200 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.026 1.000 0.154
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.918 0.667
samples: 7 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 12.50 %coverage: 100.00