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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
0
2
2
1
0
2
3

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
39
4
11
54
0
0
2
2
39
4
13
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
33
0
0
33
0
0
67
67
33
0
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
70
7
20
96
0
0
4
4
70
7
23
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.107
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 -- 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 13.50 0.15
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.339
true Heidke skill score: 0.400 true Heidke skill score: 0.032
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.339
true Kuipers skill score: 0.500 true Kuipers skill score: 0.066
threat score:
0.000 0.000 1.000
threat score:
0.000 0.074 0.154
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 1.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.003 0.123
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.154
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.926 0.000
samples: 3 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 5.36 %coverage: 100.00