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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199704-199706

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
1
0
3
4

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
38
4
10
52
0
0
3
3
39
4
13
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
25
0
0
25
0
0
0
0
0
0
75
75
25
0
75
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
68
7
18
93
0
0
5
5
70
7
23
100

hitrate: 1.000 hitrate: 0.143
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 -- 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 13.00 0.23
Heidke skill score: 1.000 Heidke skill score: -0.286
true Heidke skill score: 1.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.057
Kuipers skill score: 1.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.286
true Kuipers skill score: 1.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.113
threat score:
1.000 0.000 1.000
threat score:
0.026 0.077 0.231
equitable threat score:
1.000 0.000 1.000
equitable threat score:
0.008 0.006 0.187
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.026 1.000 0.231
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.923 0.000
samples: 4 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 7.14 %coverage: 100.00