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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
2
1
1
4
5
2
4
11
8
3
5
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
23
12
9
44
5
2
4
11
29
14
13
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
0
0
6
13
6
6
25
31
13
25
69
50
19
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
41
21
16
79
9
4
7
20
52
25
23
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.304
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 1.33 2.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 3.14 0.85
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: 0.116 true Heidke skill score: 0.070
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: 0.133 true Kuipers skill score: 0.085
threat score:
0.125 0.167 0.333
threat score:
0.034 0.261 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.067 0.048 0.066
equitable threat score:
0.017 0.029 0.083
probability of detection:
0.125 0.333 0.800
probability of detection:
0.034 0.857 0.308
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.750 0.636
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.727 0.636
samples: 16 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00