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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
5
2
4
11
5
2
5
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
24
12
9
45
5
2
4
11
29
14
13
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
8
8
42
17
33
92
42
17
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
43
21
16
80
9
4
7
20
52
25
23
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.286
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.50 2.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 3.21 0.85
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.071
true Heidke skill score: -0.103 true Heidke skill score: 0.052
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.071
true Kuipers skill score: -0.100 true Kuipers skill score: 0.064
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.255 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.059 -0.079
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.021 0.083
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.000 0.857 0.308
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.636
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.733 0.636
samples: 12 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 21.43 %coverage: 100.00