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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
5
2
4
11
6
2
5
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
23
12
9
44
5
2
4
11
29
14
13
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
0
0
8
0
0
8
8
38
15
31
85
46
15
38
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
41
21
16
79
9
4
7
20
52
25
23
100

hitrate: 0.385 hitrate: 0.304
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.17 0.50 2.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 3.14 0.85
Heidke skill score: 0.077 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: 0.019 true Heidke skill score: 0.070
Kuipers skill score: 0.077 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: 0.019 true Kuipers skill score: 0.085
threat score:
0.167 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.034 0.261 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.097 -0.054 -0.030
equitable threat score:
0.017 0.029 0.083
probability of detection:
0.167 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.034 0.857 0.308
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.636
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.727 0.636
samples: 13 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 23.21 %coverage: 100.00