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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
1
2
1
4
3
2
2
7
4
5
4
13

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
1
2
26
11
10
47
3
2
2
7
29
14
13
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
8
8
15
8
15
8
31
23
15
15
54
31
38
31
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
2
4
46
20
18
84
5
4
4
13
52
25
23
100

hitrate: 0.308 hitrate: 0.232
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.80 1.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 3.36 0.54
Heidke skill score: -0.038 Heidke skill score: -0.152
true Heidke skill score: -0.035 true Heidke skill score: -0.034
Kuipers skill score: -0.038 Kuipers skill score: -0.152
true Kuipers skill score: -0.036 true Kuipers skill score: -0.041
threat score:
0.000 0.286 0.222
threat score:
0.000 0.220 0.111
equitable threat score:
-0.114 0.085 -0.022
equitable threat score:
-0.035 -0.020 0.023
probability of detection:
0.000 0.400 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.786 0.154
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.766 0.714
samples: 13 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 23.21 %coverage: 100.00