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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
1
2
1
4
4
0
3
7
5
2
5
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
1
1
25
14
9
48
4
0
3
7
29
14
13
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
8
8
8
17
8
33
33
0
25
58
42
17
42
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
2
2
45
25
16
86
7
0
5
13
52
25
23
100

hitrate: 0.417 hitrate: 0.304
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 2.00 1.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 3.43 0.54
Heidke skill score: 0.125 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: 0.125 true Heidke skill score: 0.068
Kuipers skill score: 0.125 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: 0.133 true Kuipers skill score: 0.083
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.292 0.176
equitable threat score:
-0.075 0.400 0.014
equitable threat score:
-0.018 0.056 0.089
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.600
probability of detection:
0.000 1.000 0.231
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.571
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.708 0.571
samples: 12 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 21.43 %coverage: 100.00