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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
1
2
5
8
2
2
5
9

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
27
12
8
47
1
2
5
8
29
14
13
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
11
0
0
11
0
0
0
0
11
22
56
89
22
22
56
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
48
21
14
84
2
4
9
14
52
25
23
100

hitrate: 0.667 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 0.00 1.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 3.36 0.62
Heidke skill score: 0.500 Heidke skill score: -0.018
true Heidke skill score: 0.308 true Heidke skill score: 0.093
Kuipers skill score: 0.500 Kuipers skill score: -0.018
true Kuipers skill score: 0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.112
threat score:
0.500 0.000 0.625
threat score:
0.034 0.245 0.312
equitable threat score:
0.438 0.000 0.156
equitable threat score:
0.017 0.007 0.222
probability of detection:
0.500 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.034 0.857 0.385
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.375
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.745 0.375
samples: 9 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 16.07 %coverage: 100.00