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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199705-199707

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
0
0
0
0
2
2
5
9
3
2
5
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
26
12
8
46
2
2
5
9
29
14
13
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
0
0
10
0
0
0
0
20
20
50
90
30
20
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
46
21
14
82
4
4
9
16
52
25
23
100

hitrate: 0.600 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 0.00 1.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.03 3.29 0.69
Heidke skill score: 0.400 Heidke skill score: -0.018
true Heidke skill score: 0.231 true Heidke skill score: 0.093
Kuipers skill score: 0.400 Kuipers skill score: -0.018
true Kuipers skill score: 0.194 true Kuipers skill score: 0.113
threat score:
0.333 0.000 0.556
threat score:
0.034 0.250 0.294
equitable threat score:
0.259 0.000 0.111
equitable threat score:
0.017 0.014 0.195
probability of detection:
0.333 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.034 0.857 0.385
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.444
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.739 0.444
samples: 10 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 17.86 %coverage: 100.00