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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706-199708

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
1
3
0
4
8
5
4
17
11
8
4
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
15
17
5
37
8
5
4
17
25
22
9
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
0
0
9
4
13
0
17
35
22
17
74
48
35
17
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
27
30
9
66
14
9
7
30
45
39
16
100

hitrate: 0.391 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 0.50 4.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 1.68 1.89
Heidke skill score: 0.087 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: 0.209 true Heidke skill score: 0.128
Kuipers skill score: 0.087 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: 0.259 true Kuipers skill score: 0.139
threat score:
0.182 0.333 0.235
threat score:
0.080 0.405 0.182
equitable threat score:
0.104 0.211 0.074
equitable threat score:
0.046 0.090 0.066
probability of detection:
0.182 0.375 1.000
probability of detection:
0.080 0.773 0.444
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.250 0.765
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.541 0.765
samples: 23 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 41.07 %coverage: 100.00