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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706-199708

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
1
3
0
4
8
6
4
18
11
9
4
24

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
15
16
5
36
8
6
4
18
25
22
9
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
0
0
8
4
13
0
17
33
25
17
75
46
38
17
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
27
29
9
64
14
11
7
32
45
39
16
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.18 0.44 4.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 1.64 2.00
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.193 true Heidke skill score: 0.107
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.240 true Kuipers skill score: 0.117
threat score:
0.182 0.300 0.222
threat score:
0.080 0.381 0.174
equitable threat score:
0.107 0.176 0.067
equitable threat score:
0.046 0.067 0.055
probability of detection:
0.182 0.333 1.000
probability of detection:
0.080 0.727 0.444
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.250 0.778
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.556 0.778
samples: 24 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 42.86 %coverage: 100.00