CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706-199708

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
2
4
0
6
7
4
4
15
10
8
4
22

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
0
0
1
17
18
5
40
7
4
4
15
25
22
9
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
0
0
5
9
18
0
27
32
18
18
68
45
36
18
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
30
32
9
71
13
7
7
27
45
39
16
100

hitrate: 0.409 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 0.75 3.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.04 1.82 1.67
Heidke skill score: 0.114 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: 0.219 true Heidke skill score: 0.118
Kuipers skill score: 0.114 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: 0.263 true Kuipers skill score: 0.127
threat score:
0.100 0.400 0.267
threat score:
0.040 0.409 0.200
equitable threat score:
0.057 0.233 0.104
equitable threat score:
0.023 0.081 0.090
probability of detection:
0.100 0.500 1.000
probability of detection:
0.040 0.818 0.444
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.333 0.733
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.550 0.733
samples: 22 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 39.29 %coverage: 100.00