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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706-199708

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
1
3
0
4
9
3
4
16
12
7
4
23

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
1
0
3
14
18
5
37
9
3
4
16
25
22
9
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
9
4
0
13
4
13
0
17
39
13
17
70
52
30
17
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
2
0
5
25
32
9
66
16
5
7
29
45
39
16
100

hitrate: 0.391 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.25 0.57 4.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 1.68 1.78
Heidke skill score: 0.087 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.197 true Heidke skill score: 0.148
Kuipers skill score: 0.087 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.247 true Kuipers skill score: 0.160
threat score:
0.154 0.375 0.250
threat score:
0.077 0.439 0.190
equitable threat score:
0.038 0.263 0.092
equitable threat score:
0.027 0.131 0.078
probability of detection:
0.167 0.429 1.000
probability of detection:
0.080 0.818 0.444
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.250 0.750
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.333 0.514 0.750
samples: 23 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 41.07 %coverage: 100.00