CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706-199708

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
1
0
1
2
7
4
4
15
9
6
5
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
2
0
3
17
16
5
38
7
4
4
15
25
22
9
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
10
0
15
5
0
5
10
35
20
20
75
45
30
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
4
0
5
30
29
9
68
13
7
7
27
45
39
16
100

hitrate: 0.250 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.33 0.33 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.12 1.73 1.67
Heidke skill score: -0.125 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: -0.049 true Heidke skill score: 0.062
Kuipers skill score: -0.125 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: -0.054 true Kuipers skill score: 0.067
threat score:
0.091 0.000 0.250
threat score:
0.037 0.364 0.200
equitable threat score:
-0.036 -0.081 0.020
equitable threat score:
-0.013 0.037 0.090
probability of detection:
0.111 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.040 0.727 0.444
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 1.000 0.733
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.667 0.579 0.733
samples: 20 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 35.71 %coverage: 100.00