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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706-199708

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
0
0
0
0
9
4
4
17
9
6
4
19

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
16
16
5
37
9
4
4
17
25
22
9
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
11
0
11
0
0
0
0
47
21
21
89
47
32
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
0
4
29
29
9
66
16
7
7
30
45
39
16
100

hitrate: 0.211 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.22 0.00 4.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.08 1.68 1.89
Heidke skill score: -0.184 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: -0.036 true Heidke skill score: 0.049
Kuipers skill score: -0.184 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: -0.044 true Kuipers skill score: 0.053
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.235
threat score:
0.000 0.372 0.182
equitable threat score:
-0.094 0.000 0.031
equitable threat score:
-0.034 0.051 0.066
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.727 0.444
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.000 0.765
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.568 0.765
samples: 19 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 33.93 %coverage: 100.00