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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199706-199708

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
6
5
3
14
6
5
3
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
19
17
6
42
6
5
3
14
25
22
9
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
43
36
21
100
43
36
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
34
30
11
75
11
9
5
25
45
39
16
100

hitrate: 0.214 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.00 4.67
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.91 1.56
Heidke skill score: -0.179 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.034
Kuipers skill score: -0.179 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.036
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.214
threat score:
0.000 0.362 0.150
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.016 0.042
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.773 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.786
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.595 0.786
samples: 14 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 25.00 %coverage: 100.00