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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199707-199709

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
4
0
7
2
3
0
5
2
9
6
17
7
16
6
29

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
4
0
7
5
12
15
32
2
9
6
17
10
25
21
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
10
14
0
24
7
10
0
17
7
31
21
59
24
55
21
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
7
0
13
9
21
27
57
4
16
11
30
18
45
38
100

hitrate: 0.414 hitrate: 0.375
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.31 2.83
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.70 1.28 0.81
Heidke skill score: 0.121 Heidke skill score: 0.062
true Heidke skill score: 0.192 true Heidke skill score: -0.027
Kuipers skill score: 0.121 Kuipers skill score: 0.062
true Kuipers skill score: 0.234 true Kuipers skill score: -0.026
threat score:
0.273 0.167 0.353
threat score:
0.214 0.267 0.188
equitable threat score:
0.141 0.016 0.184
equitable threat score:
0.137 -0.074 -0.015
probability of detection:
0.429 0.188 1.000
probability of detection:
0.300 0.480 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.571 0.400 0.647
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.571 0.625 0.647
samples: 29 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 51.79 %coverage: 100.00