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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199707-199709

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
0
5
2
4
1
7
1
7
5
13
5
14
6
25

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
3
0
5
7
15
16
38
1
7
5
13
10
25
21
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
8
12
0
20
8
16
4
28
4
28
20
52
20
56
24
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
5
0
9
13
27
29
68
2
13
9
23
18
45
38
100

hitrate: 0.440 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.50 2.17
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.50 1.52 0.62
Heidke skill score: 0.160 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.175 true Heidke skill score: -0.022
Kuipers skill score: 0.160 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.201 true Kuipers skill score: -0.021
threat score:
0.250 0.235 0.357
threat score:
0.154 0.312 0.172
equitable threat score:
0.143 0.006 0.173
equitable threat score:
0.091 -0.063 0.005
probability of detection:
0.400 0.286 0.833
probability of detection:
0.200 0.600 0.238
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.429 0.615
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.600 0.605 0.615
samples: 25 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 44.64 %coverage: 100.00