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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199707-199709

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
5
2
10
2
4
0
6
0
1
3
4
5
10
5
20

contingency table
fcst
obs
3
5
2
10
7
19
16
42
0
1
3
4
10
25
21
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
15
25
10
50
10
20
0
30
0
5
15
20
25
50
25
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
5
9
4
18
13
34
29
75
0
2
5
7
18
45
38
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.446
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
2.00 0.60 0.80
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 1.68 0.19
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.170
true Heidke skill score: 0.259 true Heidke skill score: 0.087
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.170
true Kuipers skill score: 0.280 true Kuipers skill score: 0.084
threat score:
0.250 0.333 0.500
threat score:
0.176 0.396 0.136
equitable threat score:
0.053 0.111 0.400
equitable threat score:
0.080 0.009 0.073
probability of detection:
0.600 0.400 0.600
probability of detection:
0.300 0.760 0.143
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.333 0.250
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.700 0.548 0.250
samples: 20 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 35.71 %coverage: 100.00