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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199707-199709

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
2
4
2
8
0
5
2
7
3
10
4
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
1
1
0
2
9
19
19
47
0
5
2
7
10
25
21
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
6
6
0
12
12
24
12
47
0
29
12
41
18
59
24
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
2
2
0
4
16
34
34
84
0
9
4
13
18
45
38
100

hitrate: 0.412 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.67 0.80 1.75
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.20 1.88 0.33
Heidke skill score: 0.118 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.029 true Heidke skill score: -0.061
Kuipers skill score: 0.118 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.030 true Kuipers skill score: -0.056
threat score:
0.250 0.286 0.222
threat score:
0.091 0.358 0.077
equitable threat score:
0.177 -0.076 0.048
equitable threat score:
0.060 -0.062 -0.027
probability of detection:
0.333 0.400 0.500
probability of detection:
0.100 0.760 0.095
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.500 0.714
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.500 0.596 0.714
samples: 17 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 30.36 %coverage: 100.00