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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199707-199709

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
0
3
0
2
1
3
0
2
2
4
0
7
3
10

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
3
0
3
10
20
19
49
0
2
2
4
10
25
21
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
30
0
30
0
20
10
30
0
20
20
40
0
70
30
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
5
0
5
18
36
34
88
0
4
4
7
18
45
38
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.393
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.43 1.33
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.30 1.96 0.19
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.089
true Heidke skill score: 0.104 true Heidke skill score: -0.060
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.089
true Kuipers skill score: 0.167 true Kuipers skill score: -0.054
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.400
threat score:
0.000 0.370 0.087
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.017 0.211
equitable threat score:
-0.043 -0.058 0.023
probability of detection:
0.000 0.286 0.667
probability of detection:
0.000 0.800 0.095
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.333 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.592 0.500
samples: 10 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 17.86 %coverage: 100.00