CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199707-199709

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
1
1
2
0
1
1
2
0
3
2
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
10
23
20
53
0
1
1
2
10
25
21
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
20
0
20
0
20
20
40
0
20
20
40
0
60
40
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
18
41
36
95
0
2
2
4
18
45
38
100

hitrate: 0.400 hitrate: 0.429
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.67 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 2.12 0.10
Heidke skill score: 0.100 Heidke skill score: 0.143
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.019
Kuipers skill score: 0.100 Kuipers skill score: 0.143
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.017
threat score:
0.000 0.250 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.418 0.045
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.071 0.091
equitable threat score:
-0.017 -0.021 0.012
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.920 0.048
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.500 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.566 0.500
samples: 5 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 8.93 %coverage: 100.00