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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199707-199709

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
4
2
6
0
4
2
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
10
21
19
50
0
4
2
6
10
25
21
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
67
33
100
0
67
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
18
38
34
89
0
7
4
11
18
45
38
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.00 0.29
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: -0.050
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: -0.045
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.389 0.080
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.042 -0.011
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.840 0.095
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.580 0.667
samples: 6 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 10.71 %coverage: 100.00