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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708-199710

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
4
5
0
0
3
3
0
1
8
9
0
2
15
17

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
4
5
8
22
12
42
0
1
8
9
8
24
24
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
6
24
29
0
0
18
18
0
6
47
53
0
12
88
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
7
9
14
39
21
75
0
2
14
16
14
43
43
100

hitrate: 0.471 hitrate: 0.536
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.50 0.60
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.62 1.75 0.38
Heidke skill score: 0.206 Heidke skill score: 0.304
true Heidke skill score: -0.034 true Heidke skill score: 0.222
Kuipers skill score: 0.206 Kuipers skill score: 0.304
true Kuipers skill score: -0.083 true Kuipers skill score: 0.217
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.500 0.320
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.076 0.007
equitable threat score:
-0.058 0.154 0.196
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.533
probability of detection:
0.000 0.917 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.111
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.476 0.111
samples: 17 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 30.36 %coverage: 100.00