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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708-199710

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
1
9
10
0
1
11
12

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
23
15
46
0
1
9
10
8
24
24
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
17
0
8
75
83
0
8
92
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
41
27
82
0
2
16
18
14
43
43
100

hitrate: 0.750 hitrate: 0.571
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 2.00 0.91
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.92 0.42
Heidke skill score: 0.625 Heidke skill score: 0.357
true Heidke skill score: -0.125 true Heidke skill score: 0.250
Kuipers skill score: 0.625 Kuipers skill score: 0.357
true Kuipers skill score: -0.182 true Kuipers skill score: 0.233
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.750
threat score:
0.000 0.489 0.360
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.059 -0.059
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.120 0.228
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.818
probability of detection:
0.000 0.958 0.375
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.100
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.100
samples: 12 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 21.43 %coverage: 100.00