CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708-199710

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
3
4
0
2
10
12
0
3
13
16

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
22
14
44
0
2
10
12
8
24
24
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
6
19
25
0
13
63
75
0
19
81
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
39
25
79
0
4
18
21
14
43
43
100

hitrate: 0.688 hitrate: 0.571
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 1.33 0.92
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.83 0.50
Heidke skill score: 0.531 Heidke skill score: 0.357
true Heidke skill score: 0.091 true Heidke skill score: 0.250
Kuipers skill score: 0.531 Kuipers skill score: 0.357
true Kuipers skill score: 0.103 true Kuipers skill score: 0.233
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.667
threat score:
0.000 0.478 0.385
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.048 0.048
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.116 0.233
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.769
probability of detection:
0.000 0.917 0.417
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.750 0.167
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.500 0.167
samples: 16 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 28.57 %coverage: 100.00