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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199708-199710

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 8.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
1
0
2
11
13
0
3
11
14

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
8
22
13
43
0
2
11
13
8
24
24
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
7
0
7
0
14
79
93
0
21
79
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
39
23
77
0
4
20
23
14
43
43
100

hitrate: 0.857 hitrate: 0.589
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.33 1.18
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.79 0.54
Heidke skill score: 0.786 Heidke skill score: 0.384
true Heidke skill score: 0.440 true Heidke skill score: 0.281
Kuipers skill score: 0.786 Kuipers skill score: 0.384
true Kuipers skill score: 0.333 true Kuipers skill score: 0.263
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.846
threat score:
0.000 0.489 0.423
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.282 0.282
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.134 0.266
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.917 0.458
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.154
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.488 0.154
samples: 14 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 25.00 %coverage: 100.00