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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
0
0
1
1
0
2
4
6
0
3
5
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
1
0
1
15
23
11
49
0
2
4
6
15
26
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
13
0
13
0
0
13
13
0
25
50
75
0
38
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
0
2
27
41
20
88
0
4
7
11
27
46
27
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.482
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.33 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.07 1.88 0.40
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.223
true Heidke skill score: -0.032 true Heidke skill score: 0.076
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.223
true Kuipers skill score: -0.033 true Kuipers skill score: 0.066
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.571
threat score:
0.000 0.442 0.235
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.103 0.077
equitable threat score:
-0.017 0.009 0.155
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.000 0.885 0.267
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 1.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.531 0.333
samples: 8 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 14.29 %coverage: 100.00