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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
4
6
0
2
5
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
24
11
50
0
2
4
6
15
26
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
14
14
0
29
57
86
0
29
71
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
43
20
89
0
4
7
11
27
46
27
100

hitrate: 0.571 hitrate: 0.500
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.50 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.92 0.40
Heidke skill score: 0.357 Heidke skill score: 0.250
true Heidke skill score: -0.235 true Heidke skill score: 0.102
Kuipers skill score: 0.357 Kuipers skill score: 0.250
true Kuipers skill score: -0.200 true Kuipers skill score: 0.089
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.571
threat score:
0.000 0.462 0.235
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.105 -0.105
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.027 0.155
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.800
probability of detection:
0.000 0.923 0.267
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.520 0.333
samples: 7 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 12.50 %coverage: 100.00