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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 4.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
1
0
2
3
5
0
2
4
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
24
12
51
0
2
3
5
15
26
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
17
17
0
33
50
83
0
33
67
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
43
21
91
0
4
5
9
27
46
27
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.482
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.50 1.25
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.96 0.33
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.223
true Heidke skill score: -0.286 true Heidke skill score: 0.064
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.223
true Kuipers skill score: -0.250 true Kuipers skill score: 0.055
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.453 0.176
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.125 -0.125
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.011 0.106
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.750
probability of detection:
0.000 0.923 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.400
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.529 0.400
samples: 6 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 10.71 %coverage: 100.00