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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
5
7
0
2
5
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
24
10
49
0
2
5
7
15
26
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
29
71
100
0
29
71
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
43
18
88
0
4
9
13
27
46
27
100

hitrate: 0.714 hitrate: 0.518
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 1.40
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.88 0.47
Heidke skill score: 0.571 Heidke skill score: 0.277
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.139
Kuipers skill score: 0.571 Kuipers skill score: 0.277
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.122
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.714
threat score:
0.000 0.471 0.294
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.044 0.207
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.923 0.333
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.286
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.510 0.286
samples: 7 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 12.50 %coverage: 100.00