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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199709-199711

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 9.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
6
0
3
3
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
15
23
12
50
0
3
3
6
15
26
15
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
50
50
100
0
50
50
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
27
41
21
89
0
5
5
11
27
46
27
100

hitrate: 0.500 hitrate: 0.464
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.00 2.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.92 0.40
Heidke skill score: 0.250 Heidke skill score: 0.196
true Heidke skill score: 0.000 true Heidke skill score: 0.038
Kuipers skill score: 0.250 Kuipers skill score: 0.196
true Kuipers skill score: 0.000 true Kuipers skill score: 0.033
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.500
threat score:
0.000 0.434 0.167
equitable threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.000
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.007 0.085
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.885 0.200
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.540 0.500
samples: 6 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 10.71 %coverage: 100.00