CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199710-199712

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
2
1
5
0
1
1
2
2
3
2
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
18
15
54
0
1
1
2
21
19
16
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
29
29
14
71
0
14
14
29
29
43
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
38
32
27
96
0
2
2
4
38
34
29
100

hitrate: 0.429 hitrate: 0.339
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 1.67 1.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.84 0.12
Heidke skill score: 0.143 Heidke skill score: 0.009
true Heidke skill score: 0.067 true Heidke skill score: 0.003
Kuipers skill score: 0.143 Kuipers skill score: 0.009
true Kuipers skill score: 0.062 true Kuipers skill score: 0.003
threat score:
0.000 0.333 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.327 0.059
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.037 0.176
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.009 0.026
probability of detection:
0.000 0.667 0.500
probability of detection:
0.000 0.947 0.062
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.600 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.667 0.500
samples: 7 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 12.50 %coverage: 100.00