CPC Banner
 

CPC Verifications

Forecast 199710-199712

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 1.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
0
0
0
0
0
3
2
5
2
3
2
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
2
0
0
2
19
16
14
49
0
3
2
5
21
19
16
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
29
0
0
29
0
0
0
0
0
43
29
71
29
43
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
4
0
0
4
34
29
25
88
0
5
4
9
38
34
29
100

hitrate: 0.571 hitrate: 0.357
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
1.00 0.00 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.10 2.58 0.31
Heidke skill score: 0.357 Heidke skill score: 0.036
true Heidke skill score: 0.400 true Heidke skill score: 0.032
Kuipers skill score: 0.357 Kuipers skill score: 0.036
true Kuipers skill score: 0.438 true Kuipers skill score: 0.032
threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.095 0.308 0.105
equitable threat score:
1.000 0.000 0.160
equitable threat score:
0.062 -0.018 0.033
probability of detection:
1.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.095 0.842 0.125
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.673 0.600
samples: 7 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 12.50 %coverage: 100.00