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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199710-199712

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 3.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
3
2
6
2
3
2
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
20
16
14
50
1
3
2
6
21
19
16
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
14
0
0
14
14
43
29
86
29
43
29
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
36
29
25
89
2
5
4
11
38
34
29
100

hitrate: 0.286 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.33 3.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.63 0.38
Heidke skill score: -0.071 Heidke skill score: -0.018
true Heidke skill score: -0.029 true Heidke skill score: -0.018
Kuipers skill score: -0.071 Kuipers skill score: -0.018
true Kuipers skill score: -0.031 true Kuipers skill score: -0.018
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.333
threat score:
0.000 0.302 0.100
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.120 0.067
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.027 0.016
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.842 0.125
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.667
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.680 0.667
samples: 7 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 12.50 %coverage: 100.00