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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199710-199712

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
1
1
2
4
0
0
0
0
1
3
3
7

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
2
1
3
21
17
15
53
0
0
0
0
21
19
16
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
29
14
43
14
14
29
57
0
0
0
0
14
43
43
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
4
2
5
38
30
27
95
0
0
0
0
38
34
29
100

hitrate: 0.143 hitrate: 0.304
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
3.00 1.33 0.00
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.14 2.79 0.00
Heidke skill score: -0.286 Heidke skill score: -0.045
true Heidke skill score: -0.235 true Heidke skill score: -0.057
Kuipers skill score: -0.286 Kuipers skill score: -0.045
true Kuipers skill score: -0.267 true Kuipers skill score: -0.057
threat score:
0.000 0.167 0.000
threat score:
0.000 0.309 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.120 -0.167 0.000
equitable threat score:
-0.049 -0.027 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.333 0.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.895 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.750 0.000
false alarm rate (FAR):
1.000 0.679 0.000
samples: 7 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 12.50 %coverage: 100.00