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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199710-199712

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 10.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
1
0
3
2
5
1
3
2
6

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
21
16
14
51
0
3
2
5
21
19
16
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
17
0
0
17
0
50
33
83
17
50
33
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
38
29
25
91
0
5
4
9
38
34
29
100

hitrate: 0.333 hitrate: 0.321
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 0.33 2.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.68 0.31
Heidke skill score: 0.000 Heidke skill score: -0.018
true Heidke skill score: -0.043 true Heidke skill score: -0.020
Kuipers skill score: 0.000 Kuipers skill score: -0.018
true Kuipers skill score: -0.045 true Kuipers skill score: -0.020
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.400
threat score:
0.000 0.296 0.105
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.143 0.100
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.036 0.033
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 1.000
probability of detection:
0.000 0.842 0.125
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.600
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.686 0.600
samples: 6 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 10.71 %coverage: 100.00