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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 0.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
0
3
3
6
0
3
5
8

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
20
29
50
0
3
3
6
1
23
32
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
25
25
0
38
38
75
0
38
63
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
36
52
89
0
5
5
11
2
41
57
100

hitrate: 0.375 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 0.67 1.20
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.17 0.19
Heidke skill score: 0.062 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: -0.429 true Heidke skill score: -0.030
Kuipers skill score: 0.062 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: -0.400 true Kuipers skill score: -0.034
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.375
threat score:
0.000 0.377 0.086
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.176 -0.176
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.017 -0.014
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.600
probability of detection:
0.000 0.870 0.094
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.600 0.500
samples: 8 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 14.29 %coverage: 100.00