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CPC Verifications

Forecast 199711-199801

 

Verification Type: categorical temperature
Tool/Product: seasonal Canonical Corr. Analysis Temp 6.5 mo lead
Region: conus
Averaging Period: 1 season

cat 4 ignored
cat 4 used

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
0
1
1
2
0
1
4
5

contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
1
22
31
54
0
1
1
2
1
23
32
56

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
0
0
60
60
0
20
20
40
0
20
80
100

% contingency table
fcst
obs
0
0
0
0
2
39
55
96
0
2
2
4
2
41
57
100

hitrate: 0.200 hitrate: 0.411
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
-- 3.00 0.50
bias ratio (>1 overfcst):
0.00 2.35 0.06
Heidke skill score: -0.200 Heidke skill score: 0.116
true Heidke skill score: -0.429 true Heidke skill score: -0.010
Kuipers skill score: -0.200 Kuipers skill score: 0.116
true Kuipers skill score: -0.750 true Kuipers skill score: -0.011
threat score:
0.000 0.000 0.200
threat score:
0.000 0.400 0.030
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.176 -0.176
equitable threat score:
0.000 -0.005 -0.004
probability of detection:
0.000 0.000 0.250
probability of detection:
0.000 0.957 0.031
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 1.000 0.500
false alarm rate (FAR):
0.000 0.593 0.500
samples: 5 out of 56 samples: 56 out of 56
%coverage: 8.93 %coverage: 100.00